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BIO:
Rich Green is the editor of http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com , a free sports handicapping and information service. He has been a top ranked handicapper for over 30 years. He specializes in Football, Basketball and Baseball, all the major sports, and has won numerous contests in each.
(Please scroll down for 2008 NFL and NCAA Football Trends and Tips)
Thursday August 28
3*** Oregon State -3 Over STANFORD (NCAA Football, 9 et) (Weather)
We are excited about another winning Gold Key Football Season, and we won with our Gold Key Football Play on the Under between the Giants and Jets this past weekend. We have Gold Key Baseball and Football Specials starting as low as $44 on site! If you can find a better value, please take it! You are welcome to stop by our site daily for free injury reports, live lines, scores, gambling articles, contests, etc. You can login daily to get your Top Rated Gold Key Plays in Football, Basketball and Baseball without anyone disturbing or calling you. Here is tonight's Free Column release on NCAA Football.
The Beavers of the Pacific Ten Conference under their long-tenured Head Coach Mike Riley won the Emerald Bowl last season, their fourth straight Bowl win (over the past five seasons). Quarterback Moevao figures to improve, and they look strong in the backfield. Positive trends for the Beavers tonight include 4-1 Against The Spread in this match up, 11-7 ATS in Conference Play, and 8-3 ATS as Road Favorites.
The Cardinal enter this Conference match up under their second-year Head Coach Jim Harbaugh looking to improve again after 4-8 and 1-11 Straight Up seasons. Senior Quarterback Pritchard has been given the nod as starter this evening. The Cardinal won SU last season as heavy Dogs at USC and Arizona, and finished the season in a 20-13 SU Home win as two Touchdown Dogs to Cal. Negative trends include 2-8 ATS as Home Dogs, and 5-13 ATS in Conference Play.
The line opened today at Beavers -3. We'll go with the Road Beavers to cover for us here tonight in a Good Free Play. For those who don't know it, our Members rarely wager on the FREE release, and instead invest their money wisely on the Gold Key Plays. Make sure to stop by the FreeSportsLetter.com site for more FREE Winners as well as Football, Basketball and Baseball wagering information. Visit us and check out the stronger Top Rated Gold Key Plays on site as well.
--Rich Green
Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com
http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com
2008 NCAA & NFL Football Against The Spread (ATS) Trends
Here is a look before the 2008 College Football season starts on many teams and some basic ATS trends:
Air Force -- Under first year Head Coach Troy Calhoun were 5-0 Against The Spread as Favorites, 5-0 ATS at Home
Akron -- Finished '07 on a 1-4-1 ATS run, finished '06 on an 0-5 ATS run
Alabama -- 0-4 ATS as Home Favorites under first year Head Coach Nick Saban, 2-14 ATS as HFs over past three seasons
Arizona -- 10-2 ATS last four games of the past three seasons
Arizona State -- 0-5 ATS run to end Head Coach Erickson's first season
Arkansas State -- 1-5 ATS as Road Favorites in six years under Head Coach Steve Roberts
Army -- 1-5-1 ATS run to end '07, 1-6 ATS run to end '06
Auburn -- 7-1 ATS as Road Dogs past three seasons
Ball State -- 10-3 ATS as Road Dogs recently
Boise State -- 17-6 ATS as Home Favorites past four seasons
Boston College -- 1-5 ATS run to end Head Coach Jeff Jagodzinski's first season
Bowling Green -- 8-4 ATS as Road Dogs recently
Buffalo -- 16-8 ATS in Conference Play past three seasons
California -- 2-20 ATS run to end the past three Regular seasons (4-22 ATS including Bowl Games)
Central Florida -- 0-4 ATS as greater than 20 point Favorites
Central Michigan -- 11-3 ATS at Home past three seasons
Cincinnati -- 8-3-1 ATS under first year Head Coach Brian Kelly
Clemson -- 6-2 ATS to start '06 and 6-3 ATS to start '07, 0-5 ATS to end '06 and 0-3 ATS to end '07
Colorado -- 3-10-1 ATS as Road Dogs past three seasons
Connecticut -- 7-1 ATS as Home Dogs past three seasons
East Carolina -- 13-3 ATS as Road Dogs in three seasons under Head Coach Skip Holtz
Eastern Michigan -- 3-7 ATS as Home Dogs in four seasons under Head Coach Jeff Genyk
Florida -- 6-1-1 ATS as Road Dogs (4-0 ATS in three seasons under Head Coach Urban Meyer)
Florida Atlantic -- 5-0 ATS as Road Favorites past two seasons
Florida State -- 4-0 ATS in Bowl Games
Georgia -- 7-0-1 ATS as Road Dogs, finished last two seasons on 3-0 ATS and 4-0 ATS runs
Georgia Tech -- gets excellent ATS Head Coach in Paul Johnson
Idaho -- finished last four seasons on 1-8, 0-4, 2-4 and 1-4 ATS runs
Illinois -- 11-5 ATS in Conference Play last two seasons
Iowa -- 1-8 ATS as Road Favorites recently
Kansas -- 19-6 ATS at Home recently
Kansas State -- 0-7 ATS as Road Favorites last four seasons
Kent State -- finished last three seasons on 0-7, 1-4 and 1-4 ATS runs
UL-Lafayette -- 0-4-1 ATS as Home Dogs and 3-5-1 as Home Favorites over past three seasons
UL-Monroe -- 13-5 ATS as Road Dogs last three seasons, finished last two seasons on 5-0 ATS runs each
LSU -- 6-16-4 ATS in Conference Play in three seasons under Head Coach Les Miles
Louisiana Tech -- 5-19 ATS as Road Dogs recently
Louisville -- 6-0 ATS as Double Digit Dogs recently
Marshall -- 4-12-1 ATS as Road Dogs recently
Maryland -- 2-12 ATS as Home Favorites last four seasons
Miami -- 12-24 ATS record last three seasons
Michigan State -- 18-3 ATS in last Home game
Mississippi State -- 9-2-1 ATS on the Road last two seasons
Missouri -- 35-2-2 ATS when they win Straight Up on the Road
North Carolina State -- 3-12 ATS as Home Favorites recently
Notre Dame -- 0-7 ATS last seven Bowl Games
Ohio State -- 12-4 ATS as Road Favorites recently
Oklahoma -- 9-0 ATS as Single Digit Home or Neutral Favorites
Oregon -- 12-4 ATS as Home Favorites last three seasons
Penn State -- 4-12 ATS in Conference Play last two seasons
Rice -- 19-2-1 ATS as Home Dogs in Conference Play
San Diego State -- 0-8 ATS as Home Dogs greater than two Touchdowns
San Jose State -- 3-0, 3-0 and 2-0 ATS to end Head Coach Dick Tomey's first three seasons
South Florida -- 21-14 ATS as Home Favorites last three seasons
USC -- 10-2 ATS in last Home game
Syracuse -- 6-15 ATS in Conference Play in three seasons under Head Coach Greg Robinson
TCU -- 12-4 ATS at Home last three seasons
Temple -- 14-4-2 ATS in Conference Play last four seasons
Texas -- 13-2 ATS in last Home game
UTEP -- 5-1 ATS as Home Dogs in four seasons under Head Coach Mike Price
Texas Tech -- 16-3-1 ATS in last Home game
Toledo -- 4-13 ATS on the Road last three seasons
Troy -- 12-6 ATS as Road Dogs recently
Tulane -- 3-10 ATS as Home Dogs recently
UNLV -- 1-9 ATS as Home Favorites recently
Utah -- 11-5 ATS in Conference Play last two seasons
Vanderbilt -- 1-8 ATS as non-Conference Home Favorites
Virginia -- 1-6 ATS as Road Favorites last three seasons
Virginia Tech -- 19-6 ATS on the Road last four seasons, 1-7 ATS in non-Conference Play recently
Wake Forest -- 10-1 ATS as Double Digit non-Conference Dogs recently
Washington -- 1-10 as Home Favorites last four seasons, 0-12 ATS as Conference Favorites greater than a field goal
Wisconsin -- 16-8 ATS at Home last four seasons
Wyoming -- 0-8-1, 0-4 and 0-6 ATS runs to end the last three seasons
Here is a look before the 2008 NFL Football season starts on teams and some basic ATS trends:
Arizona -- 3-16 ATS on the Road off of back-to-back Straight Up losses
Atlanta -- new Staff but 0-10 ATS Home off of back-to-back Straight Up wins
Baltimore -- new Staff but 2-9 ATS as Road Favorites greater than six points
Buffalo -- 11-5 ATS at Home under Head Coach Dick Jauron
Carolina -- 15-6 ATS as Road Dogs recently
Chicago -- 8-1 ATS as Double Digit NFC Dogs
Cincinnati -- 8-1 ATS when the Totals Line is Under 38 Total Points
Cleveland -- 5-1 ATS as Road Favorites, 4-1 ATS as Double Digit Dogs
Dallas -- 12-100 ATS when they lose Straight Up
Denver -- 10-22 ATS last two seasons
Detroit -- 4-12 ATS as Road Dogs and 6-3 ATS as Home Dogs in two seasons under Head Coach Rod Marinelli
Green Bay -- 0-10 ATS as Favorites greater than 10 points, 11-5 ATS on the Road last two seasons
Houston -- 6-2 ATS as Home Dogs and 5-10 as Road Dogs in two seasons under Head Coach Gary Kubiak
Indianapolis -- 11-6 ATS as Home Favorites last two seasons
Jacksonville -- 7-0 ATS at Home off of back-to-back Straight Up losses, 15-7 ATS as Road Dogs last four seasons
Kansas City -- 1-10 ATS as Road Favorites versus the NFC
Miami -- new Staff but 8-2 ATS on the Road versus the NFC
Minnesota -- 2-8 ATS Home off a Road game
New England -- 7-0 ATS on the Road off a Double Digit Straight Up and ATS loss, 10-0 ATS versus the NFC West
New Orleans -- 4-1 ATS as Road Favorites and 3-11 ATS as Home Favorites in two seasons under Head Coach Sean Payton
NY Giants -- 16-5 ATS on the Road last two seasons, 6-1 ATS as Road Favorites off a Straight Up Division loss
NY Jets -- 7-1 ATS off a Double Digit SU loss and 9-6 ATS as Road Dogs in two seasons under Head Coach Eric Mangini
Oakland -- 0-8 ATS as Home Favorites, 3-18 ATS in last Home game
Philadelphia -- 0-9 ATS as Favorites off a SU win but ATS loss, 0-7 ATS Home off back-to-back Road games, 2-10 ATS Home versus the AFC
Pittsburgh -- 0-5 ATS on the Road off a SU win and 4-1 ATS Home off a SU win in Head Coach Mike Tomlin's first season
St. Louis -- 6-15 ATS as Home Favorites, 7-1 ATS off a SU and ATS win
San Diego -- covered last nine games ATS in Coach Norv Turner's first season
San Francisco -- 7-15 ATS as Road Dogs and 5-1 ATS Home off back-to-back SU and ATS losses in Head Coach Mike Nolan's three seasons
Seattle -- 20-7-1 ATS at Home and 9-17-1 ATS on the Road last three seasons
Tampa Bay -- 1-9 ATS on the Road versus the AFC, 22-3 ATS as Favorites off a SU Favorite loss
Tennessee -- 5-12 ATS as Home Favorites the last four seasons, 7-0 ATS as Home Dogs off a Double Digit ATS loss
Washington -- new Staff but 1-7 ATS in Division Road Play versus better than average opponents
Here's wishing all Football bettors a great 2008 Football Wagering Season! Make sure to stop by the http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com site for tons of FREE Wagering Information, Contests, Lines, Scores, and more importantly, FREE Winners!
--Rich Green
Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com
http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com
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2008 NCAA and NFL Football Wagering Tips
Emotion— The most important betting edge to know about in football wagering isn't statistics or numbers. The most important edge is emotion. Find the team that desires to win more than their opponent and they'll cover a high percentage of those events. This is true in all sports. But it is even more significant in a physical game like NCAA and NFL Football. Certain Coaches are much better than others in getting their teams ready for games by providing the impetus for emotion. Such Coaches as Bobby Bowden, Pete Carroll, Phillip Fulmer, Tom O'Brien, Urban Meyer, and Bill Belichick among others have all shown their worth in this area over the years.
Sandwich Games— Be careful of ‘sandwich' games. That is the game for a team that's in between two other more important games. The NFL split into different Divisions recently, with fewer teams in each Division. Since then we have both the AFC and NFC broken down into four Divisions consisting of four teams each. They are called the East, North, South and West. So now Division games are of even greater significance than in the past with fewer teams in each Division. When it comes to determining the Playoff picture, these games are the most important to each competing team.
If Tennessee for example, early in the season, plays Indianapolis this week and Jacksonville in two weeks, you know they're going to be focused on those two inter-Divisional games. But if the in-between game is against say Arizona, a lesser out of Conference team, be careful! Tennessee will have most likely played a tough game the week before, and have an important tough game the following week. Starters may be pulled early against Arizona, and those hurting from the previous game might not even play in this one.
Too many bettors jump on a team that has been covering on the ‘sandwich' game, laying way too much ‘wood'. The team usually wins, but fails to cover. Then the bettor jumps off of Tennessee the following week against Jacksonville because the bettor got burnt the week before in the sandwich game!
Line Movement— Sometimes line movement means nothing,
and sometimes it means everything. When I wager (my favorite
recreation), I want the line to be bet dead or move ˝ to one point with me. Not a lot of movement, but slightly in agreement with me. When a line moves more than one point, especially in the NFL, it can be a dangerous play. This can denote injuries or other late information such as weather, etc. But be careful, NFL teams are notorious for giving out misleading disinformation more so than any other sport.
Quite often with big line movement in the NFL, the final score falls in between the original line and the final line. This opens the door for ‘middlers', those who bet early one way and late the other way on the same game. I know several gamblers who make their living on this, and i have been successful myself at it. They give up the 10% ‘juice' in hopes of winning both ways. The most they can lose is 5% of their total bet. They clean up if one play pushes or wins and the other play wins.
NCAA football can be different though. With so many lined college games nowadays, big line movement can be bet on. For two years in a row in the early 1990's, the Ivy League football team that got the most line movement during the week won every single game those years. Every week! For games like these with fewer wagers on them, the line can easily move 3 to 5 points. Sometimes it can move even more. Beware of betting against this line movement, it generally is right. In the Colleges, stay away from wagering against consistent and massive line movement in one direction.
Here's wishing all Football bettors a great 2008 Football Wagering Season! Make sure to stop by the http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com site for tons of FREE Wagering Information, Contests, Lines, Scores, and more importantly, FREE Winners!
--Rich Green
Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com
http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com
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